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You’re reading the right blog: 2021 economy edition

 – by New Deal democrat“You’re reading the right blog” is an old chestnut (for me anyway) that I used to say from time to time to highlight a correct forecast that your (not so?) humble blogger made well in advance of more widely read sources.Well,…

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 - by New Deal democrat

“You’re reading the right blog” is an old chestnut (for me anyway) that I used to say from time to time to highlight a correct forecast that your (not so?) humble blogger made well in advance of more widely read sources.


Well, please bear with me for one more self-pat on the back.

For at least 6 months, I have been saying that the economy was poised to pick up strongly in 2021 once the pandemic loosened its grip. Most recently I repeated that in my short term and long term forecasts for 2021 over at Seeking Alpha.

And this morning, January’s index of leading indicators came in at plus 0.3%, the 9th positive reading in a row:


If the next 3 months are simply unchanged, the YoY comparison is going to be the most positive in two decades.

Meanwhile, as Bill McBride has pointed out, both public and Wall Street forecasts for q/q Q1 GDP are, well, through the roof:

Merrill Lynch: 5.5%
Goldman Sachs: 6.0%
NY Fed nowcast: 8.3%
Atlanta Fed GDP now: 9.5%

(Note: all forecasts SAAR)

The only other times in the past 75 years when the q/q change has been this high were in 1950 and 1978, plus the Q3 rebound last year from the Q2 lockdowns:


So, ... ahem ... you’ve been reading the right blog.

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