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Pandemic Factor Screening and Scoring

Pandemic Impact Factor Screening research is based on the thesis that consumer and business behaviour and practices will be changed significantly as a result of the pandemic and its aftermath. We have developed a group of seven major factors and over 30 related qualifying screening questions that we believe indicate whether a company has an increased risk or reward profile.

What We’re Looking For

We believe that the pandemic will be with us longer than many hope for. That a vaccine will take longer to produce than hoped for. That second and third waves of infection will take place throughout the developed world and that widespread testing, contact tracing and containment protocols will become a normal part of life. That developing countries and those with weak healthcare systems will be unable to stop the pandemic from spreading throughout their populations.

We believe that consumers will live with the fear of contracting Covid-19 and giving it to their vulnerable families and friends. That they will avoid travel, large crowds, going to theatres and restaurants and begin moving out of cities. That the digital transformation of our society will accelerate and businesses will accept that WFH trends are beneficial. Businesses will also be saddled with the costs of new health regulations and governments will deal with changes in consumer expectations and attitudes towards health care. In short we believe we are not returning to “normal” and that a “new normal” will exist which creates opportunities for some, and challenges and failure for others.

We approach our analysis in the context of three time periods:

1. Near term effect of the pandemic
2. A Resulting Recession/Bear Market
3. Longer Term Psychological Effects: Changes in consumer and business behavior and practices as a result of the pandemic.

Scoring and Rating for Factor Exposure

We objectively score businesses based on positive and negative factors and how significantly they may be affected by each applicable factor. Our model generates a total regression score by generating a coefficient of the risk and reward scores given to the company by an experienced analyst.

 

We generate a Total Regression Score, a Covid-19 Risk Rate and a Covid-19 Benefit Rate designed to identify companies who are most at risk or have the most to gain in a Pandemic affected economy.

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Recent Pandemic Factor Screens

Pandemic Factors

OB

Online
Business

CIP

Consumers
In Person

HR

Increased
Health
Regulations

SC

Supply
Chain

TTH

Tourism,
Travel and
Hospitality

HCS

Health Care
and Health
Safety

WFH

Work from
Home and
Stay at Home

Name

Ticker

Covid-19 Net Benefit Score

Pandemic Factors

Total Regression Score

NYSE: DPZ

Positive

OB HR WFH CIP

13.1

TSX: OTEX

Positive

OB WFH CIP

8.51

NASDAQ: LULU

Negative

OB CIP SC

-1.51

GOEasy

TSE: GSY

Positive

OB WFH

11.05

Papa John’s

NASDAQ: PZZA

Positive

OB CIP HR SC

4.82

Trivago FREE

NASDAQ: TRVG

Negative

OB CIP HR TTH

-1.0

Ruth’s

NASDAQ: RUTH

Negative

OB CIP HR

-9.05

TJX Companies

NYSE: TJX

Negative

OB CIP SC

-1.96

The 7 Pandemic Factors We Screen For

Online Businesses

Due to social distancing and lockdowns and Work From Home, businesses that operate online, or produce the tools for companies to adapt to more demand for online services should experience a surge in demand due to the coronavirus, Covid-19 outbreak. Consumers will more rapidly move online across many categories. Trends already in place will accelerate. Companies whose businesses are online or are rapidly moving online are better prepared to serve the market while those based on bricks and mortar are more likely to be challenged.

Increased Health Regulations and Restrictions

Restrictions on travel and trade as a result of the pandemic are likely to remain in place for months or years and public health regulations will become stricter and more widespread. It’s highly probable that enhanced screening, permit and visa requirements, reductions in ease of travel and transport of goods will be impacted or implemented. Governments, in an effort to restore consumer confidence, will enforce new regulations designed to protect consumers from the current pandemic and future pandemics will overshoot and result in impairing businesses who rely on international supply chains, movement of large numbers of people, or are otherwise perceived as presenting a high risk of infection to consumers.

Travel, Tourism, Hospitality and Entertainment

The most obviously impacted sectors are businesses on the front line of day to day consumer interaction. Restaurants, coffee shops, event venues, bars, pubs, hotels, resorts, etc could experience a prolonged or permanent change in consumer demand or be required to spend significantly on technologies and services designed to mitigate consumer concerns over health risks. Consumers will likely continue to avoid contact with crowds or reduce visits to brick and mortar hospitality and entertainment focused businesses. Companies in these sectors will need to change business practices and deploy technologies and systems designed to protect customers – many of these do not exist yet or are expensive.

Health, Medicine & Safety

Companies focused on the health and safety of consumers and crowds will be positioned to assist businesses who will require new and robust health security solutions in order to attract customers. Heightened focus on health and virus risks will likely spur expenditures on antiviral medications and treatments, vaccines, screening systems and devices, rapid testing, containment and quarantine solutions and services, and telemedicine. Demand for antimicrobial or antiviral materials or other “bio tech materials” and products is likely to be strong in a post pandemic world.

Dealing with Consumers In Person

Businesses that deal with large numbers of people in close proximity to each other will be negatively affected long term. Regardless of how long the pandemic will continue, its psychological, economic and financial effects, have inevitably altered the perception of risk from exposure to large group settings. Consumers are going to avoid gathering in large groups – particularly individuals over 60. We believe consumers will be fearful of the virus and we are assuming that even when the rate of infection has slowed through social distancing and other “curve flattening” efforts, the virus will be a threat for more than a year or until widespread vaccination has taken place. Even after vaccination efforts minimize the immediate threat consumer behavior will be changed long term and concern over future pandemics will be heightened for many years.

Supply Chain and Cross Border Risks

The fact the virus can remain alive for many days on inanimate objects and surfaces is a good example of a pending supply chain issue. Perishable product supply chains designed to move items from producer to consumer in days could be significantly impacted. Overall we believe that businesses that ship goods internationally or rely on global supply chains are at risk of business interruption as the pandemic circulates globally. Further, companies with long international supply chains in countries with poor healthcare systems will likely be pressured to replace suppliers and build new supply chains closer to home markets in order to avoid new border restrictions and the potential of localized lockdowns put in place to handle future outbreaks.

Work From Home and Stay At Home

The most obvious winners are companies who enable consumer cocooning or Work From Home (WFH) and Stay at Home (SAH) behaviour. As these social and business trends become entrenched, demand for a range of new solutions for managing a distributed workforce will provide existing platform companies and new entrants with opportunities to grow market share and fill demand. Companies not offering WFH opportunities will suffer, compromising their ability to attract the best employees. The delivery economy, pioneered by the likes of Amazon.com and any company that focuses on in home exercise, consumer electronics, home entertainment and ecommerce are well positioned to profit from a long term trend towards SAH behaviour. The trend towards non-brick and mortar retail, will accelerate.